2000 Senate · MI
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 593 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 47%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.48% · Republican 47.86%
D+1.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 47 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 49.475 − 47.861 = 1.614
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (1.614) = 2.386
- Absolute miss = |2.386| = 2.386
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25916, race ID 1694 (538 database).