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2000 Senate · MO

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 45%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.47% · Republican 48.39%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.467 − 48.393 = 2.074
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (2.074) = -0.073
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.073| = 0.073

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25931, race ID 1697 (538 database).