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2000 Senate · MO

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 43%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.47% · Republican 48.39%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 43 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.467 − 48.393 = 2.074
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (2.074) = 4.927
  4. Absolute miss = |4.927| = 4.927

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25934, race ID 1697 (538 database).