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2000 Senate · NY

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 700 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 47%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.19% · Republican 39.15%

D+12.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 47 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.187 − 39.148 = 12.039
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (12.039) = -14.038
  4. Absolute miss = |-14.038| = 14.038

The poll overstated the Republican by 14.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25944, race ID 1703 (538 database).