1998 Governor · NY
Blum & Weprin Associates · fieldwork ended 1998-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 662 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 25% · Republican 51%
R+26.0
The certified result
Democrat 30.47% · Republican 44.59%
R+14.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 25 − 51 = -26.00
- Actual margin = 30.466 − 44.591 = -14.125
- Signed miss = -26.00 − (-14.125) = -11.875
- Absolute miss = |-11.875| = 11.875
The poll overstated the Republican by 11.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26012, race ID 1455 (538 database).