1998 Senate · FL
Fleming & Associates · fieldwork ended 1998-10-22 (12 days before the election) · 557 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 61% · Republican 31%
D+30.0
The certified result
Democrat 62.47% · Republican 37.53%
D+24.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 61 − 31 = 30.00
- Actual margin = 62.469 − 37.531 = 24.938
- Signed miss = 30.00 − (24.938) = 5.061
- Absolute miss = |5.061| = 5.061
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26041, race ID 1724 (538 database).