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1998 Governor · AR

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 810 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 58%

R+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.66% · Republican 59.77%

R+21.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 58 = -25.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.657 − 59.771 = -21.114
  3. Signed miss = -25.00 − (-21.114) = -3.886
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.886| = 3.886

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26097, race ID 1468 (538 database).