1998 Senate · AR
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 810 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 36%
D+20.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.06% · Republican 42.22%
D+12.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 36 = 20.00
- Actual margin = 55.060 − 42.217 = 12.843
- Signed miss = 20.00 − (12.843) = 7.157
- Absolute miss = |7.157| = 7.157
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26097, race ID 1720 (538 database).