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1998 Governor · CO

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 831 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 44%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.42% · Republican 49.04%

R+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 44 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.419 − 49.038 = -0.619
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-0.619) = -4.381
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.381| = 4.381

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26108, race ID 1437 (538 database).