1998 Senate · CO
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 831 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 32% · Republican 58%
R+26.0
The certified result
Democrat 35.02% · Republican 62.49%
R+27.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 32 − 58 = -26.00
- Actual margin = 35.017 − 62.489 = -27.472
- Signed miss = -26.00 − (-27.472) = 1.472
- Absolute miss = |1.472| = 1.472
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26108, race ID 1722 (538 database).