1998 Governor · CT
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 633 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 33% · Republican 58%
R+25.0
The certified result
Democrat 35.44% · Republican 62.90%
R+27.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 33 − 58 = -25.00
- Actual margin = 35.435 − 62.900 = -27.465
- Signed miss = -25.00 − (-27.465) = 2.465
- Absolute miss = |2.465| = 2.465
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26111, race ID 1438 (538 database).