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1998 Senate · CT

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 633 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 32%

D+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 65.15% · Republican 32.37%

D+32.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 32 = 28.00
  2. Actual margin = 65.146 − 32.368 = 32.778
  3. Signed miss = 28.00 − (32.778) = -4.778
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.778| = 4.778

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26111, race ID 1723 (538 database).