1998 Senate · IN
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 819 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 58% · Republican 33%
D+25.0
The certified result
Democrat 63.72% · Republican 34.79%
D+28.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58 − 33 = 25.00
- Actual margin = 63.719 − 34.793 = 28.926
- Signed miss = 25.00 − (28.926) = -3.925
- Absolute miss = |-3.925| = 3.925
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26132, race ID 1729 (538 database).