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1998 Governor · NV

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 817 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 47%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.98% · Republican 51.56%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.978 − 51.561 = -9.583
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-9.583) = 6.583
  4. Absolute miss = |6.583| = 6.583

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26156, race ID 1452 (538 database).