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1998 Senate · NV

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 817 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 45%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 47.77%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.864 − 47.772 = 0.092
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.092) = 1.908
  4. Absolute miss = |1.908| = 1.908

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26156, race ID 1736 (538 database).