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1998 House · NV-1

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 366 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 40%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.24% · Republican 45.65%

D+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 40 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.239 − 45.654 = 3.585
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (3.585) = 0.415
  4. Absolute miss = |0.415| = 0.415

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26156, race ID 2082 (538 database).