1998 Senate · CT
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 1998-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 491 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 64% · Republican 27%
D+37.0
The certified result
Democrat 65.15% · Republican 32.37%
D+32.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 64 − 27 = 37.00
- Actual margin = 65.146 − 32.368 = 32.778
- Signed miss = 37.00 − (32.778) = 4.222
- Absolute miss = |4.222| = 4.222
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26207, race ID 1723 (538 database).