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1998 Governor · CT

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 1998-10-16 (18 days before the election) · 683 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 24% · Republican 72%

R+48.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.44% · Republican 62.90%

R+27.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 24 − 72 = -48.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.435 − 62.900 = -27.465
  3. Signed miss = -48.00 − (-27.465) = -20.535
  4. Absolute miss = |-20.535| = 20.535

The poll overstated the Republican by 20.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26208, race ID 1438 (538 database).