1998 Governor · NY
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 1998-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 584 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 26% · Republican 55%
R+29.0
The certified result
Democrat 30.47% · Republican 44.59%
R+14.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 26 − 55 = -29.00
- Actual margin = 30.466 − 44.591 = -14.125
- Signed miss = -29.00 − (-14.125) = -14.875
- Absolute miss = |-14.875| = 14.875
The poll overstated the Republican by 14.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 26215, race ID 1455 (538 database).