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2004 President · national

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2004-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 3,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48.5% · Republican 50.2%

R+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 48.13% · Republican 50.57%

R+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.5 − 50.2 = -1.70
  2. Actual margin = 48.130 − 50.573 = -2.443
  3. Signed miss = -1.70 − (-2.443) = 0.744
  4. Absolute miss = |0.744| = 0.744

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 27901, race ID 39 (538 database).