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2012 Governor · NC

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 53%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.23% · Republican 54.62%

R+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 53 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.229 − 54.623 = -11.394
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-11.394) = 0.394
  4. Absolute miss = |0.394| = 0.394

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30092, race ID 1263 (538 database).