2012 President · NV
Mellman Group · fieldwork ended 2012-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 43%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.36% · Republican 45.67%
D+6.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 52.356 − 45.675 = 6.681
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (6.681) = 1.319
- Absolute miss = |1.319| = 1.319
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30111, race ID 686 (538 database).