2012 President · IA
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2012-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 1,137 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 43%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.99% · Republican 46.18%
D+5.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 51.988 − 46.178 = 5.810
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (5.810) = 2.190
- Absolute miss = |2.190| = 2.190
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30112, race ID 665 (538 database).