Skip to content

2012 President · WI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-10-18 (19 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 48%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.78% · Republican 45.94%

D+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 48 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.776 − 45.938 = 6.838
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (6.838) = -4.838
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.838| = 4.838

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30124, race ID 701 (538 database).