2012 President · NC
Grove Insight · fieldwork ended 2012-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 44%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.35% · Republican 50.39%
R+2.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 48.351 − 50.393 = -2.042
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (-2.042) = 5.042
- Absolute miss = |5.042| = 5.042
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30131, race ID 680 (538 database).