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2012 Governor · NH

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-10-18 (19 days before the election) · 1,036 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 43%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.61% · Republican 42.52%

D+12.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 43 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.611 − 42.518 = 12.093
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (12.093) = -10.093
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.093| = 10.093

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30136, race ID 1262 (538 database).