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2012 Senate · MI

Angus Reid Global · fieldwork ended 2012-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 39%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.80% · Republican 37.98%

D+20.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 39 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.798 − 37.984 = 20.814
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (20.814) = -0.814
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.814| = 0.814

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30180, race ID 1483 (538 database).