Skip to content

2012 Governor · MO

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 582 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 40%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.77% · Republican 42.53%

D+12.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 40 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.770 − 42.534 = 12.236
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (12.236) = -1.236
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.236| = 1.236

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30186, race ID 1261 (538 database).