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2012 President · national

TIPP Insights · fieldwork ended 2012-10-18 (19 days before the election) · 885 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.4% · Republican 43.4%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.91% · Republican 46.97%

D+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.4 − 43.4 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.909 − 46.974 = 3.935
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (3.935) = 0.065
  4. Absolute miss = |0.065| = 0.065

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30195, race ID 37 (538 database).