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2012 House · NH-2

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2012-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 408 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 36%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.17% · Republican 45.34%

D+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 36 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.171 − 45.341 = 4.830
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (4.830) = -1.831
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.831| = 1.831

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30197, race ID 5138 (538 database).