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2012 President · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2012-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 773 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 42%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.98% · Republican 46.40%

D+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 42 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.980 − 46.404 = 5.576
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (5.576) = 3.424
  4. Absolute miss = |3.424| = 3.424

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30197, race ID 683 (538 database).