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2012 President · national

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2012-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49.7% · Republican 47.3%

D+2.4

The certified result

Democrat 50.91% · Republican 46.97%

D+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.7 − 47.3 = 2.40
  2. Actual margin = 50.909 − 46.974 = 3.935
  3. Signed miss = 2.40 − (3.935) = -1.535
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.535| = 1.535

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30198, race ID 37 (538 database).