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2012 President · OH

Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2012-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46.5% · Republican 46.6%

R+0.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.67% · Republican 47.69%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.5 − 46.6 = -0.10
  2. Actual margin = 50.667 − 47.688 = 2.979
  3. Signed miss = -0.10 − (2.979) = -3.078
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.078| = 3.078

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30199, race ID 688 (538 database).