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2012 Senate · VA

Clout Research · fieldwork ended 2012-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.1% · Republican 49.4%

R+3.3

The certified result

Democrat 52.87% · Republican 46.96%

D+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.1 − 49.4 = -3.30
  2. Actual margin = 52.866 − 46.961 = 5.905
  3. Signed miss = -3.30 − (5.905) = -9.205
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.205| = 9.205

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30207, race ID 1501 (538 database).