2012 Senate · FL
Angus Reid Global · fieldwork ended 2012-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 502 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 33%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.23% · Republican 42.23%
D+13.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 33 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 55.232 − 42.226 = 13.006
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (13.006) = 1.994
- Absolute miss = |1.994| = 1.994
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30208, race ID 1477 (538 database).