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2012 Senate · MN

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 33%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 65.23% · Republican 30.53%

D+34.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 33 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 65.229 − 30.528 = 34.701
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (34.701) = -11.701
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.701| = 11.701

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30235, race ID 1484 (538 database).