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2012 President · MN

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 46%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.65% · Republican 44.96%

D+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.652 − 44.958 = 7.694
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (7.694) = -2.694
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.694| = 2.694

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30235, race ID 676 (538 database).