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2012 Senate · CT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.45% · Republican 39.99%

D+12.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.454 − 39.991 = 12.463
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (12.463) = -11.463
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.463| = 11.463

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30237, race ID 1475 (538 database).