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2012 President · FL

Mellman Group · fieldwork ended 2012-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 49.13%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 49.131 = 0.877
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.877) = -0.877
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.877| = 0.877

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30238, race ID 662 (538 database).