2012 Senate · CT
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2012-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 1,412 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 43%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.45% · Republican 39.99%
D+12.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 52.454 − 39.991 = 12.463
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (12.463) = -6.463
- Absolute miss = |-6.463| = 6.463
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30255, race ID 1475 (538 database).