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2012 President · NH

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 50%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.98% · Republican 46.40%

D+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 50 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.980 − 46.404 = 5.576
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (5.576) = -7.576
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.576| = 7.576

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30260, race ID 683 (538 database).