2012 President · OH
Abt Associates · fieldwork ended 2012-10-22 (15 days before the election) · 783 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 44%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.67% · Republican 47.69%
D+3.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 50.667 − 47.688 = 2.979
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (2.979) = 2.022
- Absolute miss = |2.022| = 2.022
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30272, race ID 688 (538 database).