2012 Senate · NY
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2012-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 565 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 68% · Republican 24%
D+44.0
The certified result
Democrat 62.11% · Republican 21.28%
D+40.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 68 − 24 = 44.00
- Actual margin = 62.109 − 21.283 = 40.826
- Signed miss = 44.00 − (40.826) = 3.175
- Absolute miss = |3.175| = 3.175
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30282, race ID 1492 (538 database).