2012 President · NY
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2012-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 565 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 61% · Republican 35%
D+26.0
The certified result
Democrat 60.76% · Republican 31.24%
D+29.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 61 − 35 = 26.00
- Actual margin = 60.761 − 31.242 = 29.519
- Signed miss = 26.00 − (29.519) = -3.519
- Absolute miss = |-3.519| = 3.519
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30282, race ID 687 (538 database).