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2012 Senate · VA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 48%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.87% · Republican 46.96%

D+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 48 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.866 − 46.961 = 5.905
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (5.905) = -4.905
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.905| = 4.905

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30291, race ID 1501 (538 database).