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2012 Governor · NC

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 880 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 50%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.23% · Republican 54.62%

R+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 50 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.229 − 54.623 = -11.394
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-11.394) = -1.606
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.606| = 1.606

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30293, race ID 1263 (538 database).