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2012 Senate · AZ

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 50%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.20% · Republican 49.23%

R+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 50 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.204 − 49.231 = -3.027
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-3.027) = -2.973
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.973| = 2.973

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30295, race ID 1473 (538 database).