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2012 President · CA

Public Policy Institute of California · fieldwork ended 2012-10-18 (19 days before the election) · 993 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 41%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.24% · Republican 37.12%

D+23.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 41 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.239 − 37.120 = 23.119
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (23.119) = -11.119
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.119| = 11.119

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30301, race ID 657 (538 database).