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2012 President · NV

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 955 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 49%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.36% · Republican 45.67%

D+6.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 49 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.356 − 45.675 = 6.681
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (6.681) = -5.681
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.681| = 5.681

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30323, race ID 686 (538 database).