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2012 President · FL

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 50%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 49.13%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 50 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 49.131 = 0.877
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (0.877) = -2.877
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.877| = 2.877

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30327, race ID 662 (538 database).